The Age Of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies For A Decade Of Slow Growth And Deflation

The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation

. . . brilliantly exposes the delusions of the bullish consensus . . . one of the sharpest thinkers on economic issues and their market implications. This is a must-read book for all. —Nouriel Roubini,Professor of Economics "Gary Shilling is rarer than a black swan; he's an economist who foresaw deflation. Shilling has predicted the ‘ impossible' several times in his career, so his colleagues should no longer be surprised when he turns out right." —Robert R. Prechter Jr.,Author of Conquer the Crash "Ignore Gary at the peril of your investment portfolio. Let him show you alternatives that will work in a world of deleveraging, deflation, and slower growth." —John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Advisors "The acid test of advice: those who followed Gary's not-always-popular advice during these turbulent times made money. This man is an original-and well worth listening to." — Steve Forbes,President, CEO, and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes magazine Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead. While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the U.S. and world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks. . Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead. Q&A with Author A. Gary Shilling Your book is called The Age of Deleveraging. Could you explain what you mean by deleveraging and how it informs your long-term view of the economy? Starting in the 1970s, financial institutions worldwide began to leverage their equity by heavy outside borrowing. U.S. consumers did the same, commencing in the early 1980s as they dropped their saving rate from 12% to 1% in 2005, slashed their down payments on houses and hyped their borrowing with credit cards, student and home equity loans. Now, embarrassment over the near-financial meltdown and newly-vigilant regulators are forcing the financial sector to delever. Meanwhile, American consumers have no choice but to save more and repay debt. After earlier home equity withdrawals and the collapse in house prices, few have any equity left in their houses and a quarter of those with mortgages are under water. With the stock nosedives in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, few individual investors trust their equity portfolios to finance their kids’ educations and their own early retirements. The postwar babies desperately need to save for retirement, and many can. Many are in their peak earning 50s and their offspring’s college tuition payments are completed. Also, continuing high unemployment is encouraging saving for contingencies.