Scenarios: The Art Of Strategic Conversation

Scenarios: The Art Of Strategic Conversation

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent fututes. It ensures not that you are always right about the future but--better--that you are almost never wrong about the future."--Stewart Brand This groundbreaking book from University of Strathclyde professor Kees van der Heijden shows how to use scenarios--a powerful new approach to strategic planning--to pilot your company profitably through unknown territory. When initially developed, scenario planning helped companies understand external change--change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics, etc. In this book, van der Heijden goes one giant step further. After tackling external forces, he shows you how to apply the logic of scenario planning to internal forces. *A dynamic scenario-based approach to the strategic planning and organizational learning from an internationally respected authority *Arms managers with tools, concepts, and techniques they need to profitable pilot their organizations into an uncertain futureFrom the PublisherThis book shows how to use scenarios--a powerful new approach to strategic planning--to pilot your company profitably through unknown territory. First developed at Royal Dutch/Shell, scenario planning is a technique that enables you to imagine--and prepare for--discontinuous change. When initially developed, scenario planning helped companies understand external change--change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics and so on. In this book, the author takes the art of senario planning one giant step further. After tackling external forces, he shows you how to apply the logic of scenario planning to internal forces. When applied internally as well as externally, scenarios become the driving force for learning as well as planning.From the Inside FlapScenarios Scenarios deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future for the organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Uncertainties about the future are often felt to be uncomfortable and thus "swept under the table" by collapsing them into a single-line forecast. This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility. At worst it means a wild jump in the dark. Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective on the future completely. The secret of success moves from "finding the best strategy" to "finding the best process". Thinking about scenarios - the different plausible future environments that can be imagined - is the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking about it as the plans for the future unfold. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing "strategic conversation", penetrating both the formal and informal exchange of views through which the strategic understanding develops - and actions result. deals first with the principles of organizational learning and then moves on to describe practical and down-to-earth ways in which the organization can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario-based strategy process. The methods described are based on many years of practical experience of managers in both large and small organizations; and they are grounded in solid logic.From the Back CoverScenarios The Art of Strategic Conversation "Kees van der Heijden has written the most comprehensive, detailed and insightful guide to understanding the business environment in a way most useful to business. No one has mastered the art of bringing that insight to bear in the real world of business with greater depth than Kees." Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; author of The Art of the Long View. The only constants in the current business environment are turbulence and change. When initially developed at Royal Dutch/Shell, scenario planning helped companies understand external change - change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics and so on. In this b