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If you have any questions, you are always welcome to contact us. We'll get back to you as soon as possible, withing 24 hours on weekdays.
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What influence do demographic, socioeconomic and political characteristics of Constituencies have in influencing the results of an election? To answer this question, the HosmerLemeshow logistic regression technique for stepwise analysis of dichotomous outcomes was used on election statistics of 2006 and data from surveys carried out in Uganda. Participation of the Constituency voters, their average monthly per Capita incomes and political party dominance characterising a Constituency were found to be reliable, statistically for the restricted model , in correctly predicting 70% of the data. The results would imply, for strategists in multiparty systems, that political and coalition actors could optimise their decisions or vote chances by articulating alternative policy matters in their campaign agenda. Unobservable income and other forms of inducements or coercion on which data are seldom collected or lacking may influence outcomes of polls. These could provide room for future studies.
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