Baseball Prospectus 2013,Used

Product DescriptionThe bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the businessThe essential guide to the 2013 baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy playeror bothyou won't be properly informed without it. Baseball Prospectus 2013 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team. Contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams Projects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called ''perhaps the game's most accurate projection model'' (Sports Illustrated) From Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseballNow in its eighteenth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.Amazon.com ReviewInsights from the Baseball Prospectus Team of ExpertsPECOTA's Bold Predictions (January 2013)One of the most fascinating moments in assembling the Baseball Prospectus annual comes when we line up the first drafts of the comments with the first set of PECOTA projections. For most players, the projections simply provide some specifics that back up what scouting reports and recent history already suggest. Then there are the player projections that challenge the expert wisdom, or come down strongly on one side or the other for a player that everyone says is too hard to predict. Here are some of the players for whom this year's annual is predicting a surprising and sizable rise or fall from last year's WARP. Every player in the book comes with a few clarifying sentences blending insights from scouting reports with a deeper look at the numbers your fantasy league isn't toting up. However, if you're willing to take a few big bets that a computer knows a lot more about baseball than you, then here are the players to watch the most closely on draft day:Potential steals: Albert Pujols, Brian McCann, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, and Josh BeckettIt's hard to imagine Albert Pujols (projection: .299, 34 HR, 104 RBI) being a 'steal,' but he got off to a rough start for the Angels, at least by his standards, posting the same WARP as Nick Swisher did for the Yankees. His 2012 careerlow TAv marked a fourth consecutive year of decline. PECOTA, however, looks at the 33 year old first baseman and boldly predicts he's a lock to return to form, calling on him to lead the AL in WARP in 2013. For the first time in a long time, Brian McCann (projection: .265/.343/.461) did not look special, posting career lows across the board and riding pine while David Ross caught the first pitch in Wild Card Playoff Game history. He says he'll be ready for opening day, but PECOTA pegs him to see the fewest plate appearances of his career. Still, when he is playing, expect a return to his career (read: AllStar) production rates. Where all your friends see an ERA of 5.18, struggles with command and control, and more than 2 mph lost off his fourseam, PECOTA looks at Tim Lincecum (projection: 187 K, 1.15 WHIP, 2.95 ERA) and sees a guy who could still lead the league in strikeouts and should lop off thirty or so freebies on the way back to a sub3.00 ERA. Jon Lester (projection: 3.51 ERA) was basically the same pitcher in 2012 as 2011 for the Red Sox, posting a similar WARP even though his strikeout rate dropped for the fourth year in a row and his homer rate rose. However, he was a disaster for fantasy owners. PECOTA sees a return to 2011 level fantasy stats with a 42% chance of improving on even that. Ditto for Josh Beckett (projection: 1.08 WHIP, 3.05 ERA), except all season he'll get to face pitchers a couple of times a game as well.Don't pull the trigger too soon on: Mike Trout, Melky