Title
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics
Sold by Ergodebooks, an authorized reseller.
Returns accepted within 30 days | support@ergodebooks.com
Shipping Information
- Free Standard Shipping — United States only
- Processing Time: 1–3 business days
- Estimated Delivery: 3–5 business days after dispatch
- Double-boxed, fully insured & discreetly packaged
- Tracking number sent via email once dispatched
- Orders over $250 require signature upon delivery. Taxes calculated at checkout.
Returns & Refund
Returns accepted within 30 days of delivery.
Damaged or Defective Item
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Wrong Item Received
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Change of Mind
Return shipping at customer's expense · 25% restocking fee applies
Payment Option
A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surpriseslike the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being firedhave caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenariosparticularly those of low probability and high impacthave the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing lowprobability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. Thinking about Strategic Surprise addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for lowprobability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failuresinstitutional as well as personalthat allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In Pollyana vs. Cassandra, for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book s final section, What Could Be, internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, highimpact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid
⚠️ WARNING (California Proposition 65):
This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.
For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.