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Se determin la incidencia de Phytophthora spp en papa durante 30 campaas en la Empresa Cultivos Varios Horquita en relacin a los factores meteorolgicos, varietales, pocas de plantacin, fenologa y distribucin espacial de los campos, y se comprob la efectividad de los mtodos de pronstico. Los datos para realizar el trabajo fueron tomados de la Estacin de Proteccin de Plantas de Yaguaramas, se confeccion una base de datos alfa numrica georeferenciada a partir de la informacin fitosanitaria. El tizn tardo de la papa incidi en el 53.3 % de las campaas en estudio. Los mayores niveles de incidencia ocurrieron en la dcada del 90, en la poca de plantacin intermedia, la edad del cultivo entre 29 y 55 das y el mes de febrero. El mtodo de pronstico Naumova modificado manifest 87.7 % de eficiencia, 56.2 % el Grfico Mvil y la combinacin de ambos el 93.7%. P. infestans manifest un patrn de dispersin en forma aleatoria, mientras que P. nicotianae muestra un patrn de dispersin hacia las reas colindantes o conectadas por la red vial, asociados a la deficiente nivelacin del suelo y poca de plantacin incidiendo anualmente desde el 2003.
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