Title
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Sold by Ergodebooks, an authorized reseller.
Returns accepted within 30 days | support@ergodebooks.com
Shipping Information
- Free Standard Shipping — United States only
- Processing Time: 1–3 business days
- Estimated Delivery: 3–5 business days after dispatch
- Double-boxed, fully insured & discreetly packaged
- Tracking number sent via email once dispatched
- Orders over $250 require signature upon delivery. Taxes calculated at checkout.
Returns & Refund
Returns accepted within 30 days of delivery.
Damaged or Defective Item
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Wrong Item Received
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Change of Mind
Return shipping at customer's expense · 25% restocking fee applies
Payment Option
The Intelligence Failures Surrounding The Invasion Of Iraq Dramatically Illustrate The Necessity Of Developing Standards For Evaluating Expert Opinion. This Book Fills That Need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock Explores What Constitutes Good Judgment In Predicting Future Events, And Looks At Why Experts Are Often Wrong In Their Forecasts.Tetlock First Discusses Arguments About Whether The World Is Too Complex For People To Find The Tools To Understand Political Phenomena, Let Alone Predict The Future. He Evaluates Predictions From Experts In Different Fields, Comparing Them To Predictions By Wellinformed Laity Or Those Based On Simple Extrapolation From Current Trends. He Goes On To Analyze Which Styles Of Thinking Are More Successful In Forecasting. Classifying Thinking Styles Using Isaiah Berlin'S Prototypes Of The Fox And The Hedgehog, Tetlock Contends That The Foxthe Thinker Who Knows Many Little Things, Draws From An Eclectic Array Of Traditions, And Is Better Able To Improvise In Response To Changing Eventsis More Successful In Predicting The Future Than The Hedgehog, Who Knows One Big Thing, Toils Devotedly Within One Tradition, And Imposes Formulaic Solutions On Illdefined Problems. He Notes A Perversely Inverse Relationship Between The Best Scientific Indicators Of Good Judgement And The Qualities That The Media Most Prizes In Punditsthe Singleminded Determination Required To Prevail In Ideological Combat.Clearly Written And Impeccably Researched, The Book Fills A Huge Void In The Literature On Evaluating Expert Opinion. It Will Appeal Across Many Academic Disciplines As Well As To Corporations Seeking To Develop Standards For Judging Expert Decisionmaking.
⚠️ WARNING (California Proposition 65):
This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.
For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.
- Q: What is the size of the book? A: The book measures six point two six inches in length, one inch in width, and nine point two five inches in height.
- Q: How many pages does it have? A: This book contains three hundred fifty-two pages, providing an in-depth exploration of the subject matter.
- Q: What type of binding does it use? A: The binding is hardcover, ensuring durability and longevity for frequent readers.
- Q: Who is the author of this book? A: The author is Philip E. Tetlock, known for his expertise in political judgment and forecasting.
- Q: Is this book suitable for academic study? A: Yes, this book is suitable for academic study, appealing to various disciplines, including social psychology.
- Q: What themes are explored in the book? A: The book explores themes of expert judgment, prediction accuracy, and the comparison between different thinking styles.
- Q: What is the recommended audience for this book? A: The recommended audience includes students, scholars, and professionals interested in political science and decision-making.
- Q: How do I apply the concepts from this book? A: You can apply the concepts by critically evaluating expert predictions and adopting a fox-like thinking style for better outcomes.
- Q: Is there a specific reading level for this book? A: This book is suitable for adult readers and those with a college-level education due to its analytical content.
- Q: How should I store this book? A: Store this book in a cool, dry place, upright on a shelf to maintain its condition and prevent damage.
- Q: How do I clean the book if it gets dirty? A: To clean the book, gently wipe the cover with a soft, dry cloth. Avoid using water or cleaning solutions.
- Q: Is this book safe for young readers? A: While not specifically aimed at children, the book's content is complex and may not be suitable for young readers.
- Q: Can I return the book if I'm not satisfied? A: Yes, you can return the book within a specified period if you're not satisfied with your purchase.
- Q: What if the book arrives damaged? A: If the book arrives damaged, you should contact customer support for assistance with a replacement or refund.
- Q: What genres does this book belong to? A: This book belongs to the social psychology and interactions genre, focusing on political judgment.