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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition-new
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Since Its Original Publication, Expert Political Judgment By New York Times Bestselling Author Philip Tetlock Has Established Itself As A Contemporary Classic In The Literature On Evaluating Expert Opinion.Tetlock First Discusses Arguments About Whether The World Is Too Complex For People To Find The Tools To Understand Political Phenomena, Let Alone Predict The Future. He Evaluates Predictions From Experts In Different Fields, Comparing Them To Predictions By Wellinformed Laity Or Those Based On Simple Extrapolation From Current Trends. He Goes On To Analyze Which Styles Of Thinking Are More Successful In Forecasting. Classifying Thinking Styles Using Isaiah Berlin'S Prototypes Of The Fox And The Hedgehog, Tetlock Contends That The Foxthe Thinker Who Knows Many Little Things, Draws From An Eclectic Array Of Traditions, And Is Better Able To Improvise In Response To Changing Eventsis More Successful In Predicting The Future Than The Hedgehog, Who Knows One Big Thing, Toils Devotedly Within One Tradition, And Imposes Formulaic Solutions On Illdefined Problems. He Notes A Perversely Inverse Relationship Between The Best Scientific Indicators Of Good Judgement And The Qualities That The Media Most Prizes In Punditsthe Singleminded Determination Required To Prevail In Ideological Combat.Clearly Written And Impeccably Researched, The Book Fills A Huge Void In The Literature On Evaluating Expert Opinion. It Will Appeal Across Many Academic Disciplines As Well As To Corporations Seeking To Develop Standards For Judging Expert Decisionmaking. Now With A New Preface In Which Tetlock Discusses The Latest Research In The Field, The Book Explores What Constitutes Good Judgment In Predicting Future Events And Looks At Why Experts Are Often Wrong In Their Forecasts.
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- Q: How many pages does this book have? A: This book has three hundred sixty-eight pages. It provides an in-depth exploration of expert political judgment.
- Q: What is the binding type of this book? A: The book is available in paperback binding. This makes it lightweight and easy to handle.
- Q: What are the dimensions of the book? A: The book measures six inches in length, zero point five one inches in width, and nine point twenty-five inches in height.
- Q: Who is the author of 'Expert Political Judgment'? A: The author is Philip Tetlock, a New York Times bestselling author known for his work on expert opinion.
- Q: What category does this book fall under? A: This book is categorized under Social Psychology and Interactions. It focuses on evaluating expert opinions in political contexts.
- Q: How should I read this book? A: You can read this book at your own pace. It's suitable for anyone interested in political judgment and expert analysis.
- Q: Is this book suitable for beginners? A: Yes, the book is suitable for beginners. It clearly explains complex concepts related to expert judgment.
- Q: Can I use this book for academic purposes? A: Yes, it can be used for academic purposes. It appeals across many disciplines and is well-researched.
- Q: What is the recommended age for readers of this book? A: The book is suitable for adult readers and those studying social sciences. It addresses complex themes in political judgment.
- Q: How do I keep this book in good condition? A: To keep the book in good condition, store it in a dry place and avoid exposure to direct sunlight.
- Q: Is there a warranty or guarantee on this book? A: Typically, books do not come with a warranty. However, check with the retailer for their return policies.
- Q: What if the book arrives damaged? A: If the book arrives damaged, contact the seller for a return or exchange. They usually have customer support for such issues.
- Q: How do I handle and clean this book? A: Handle the book with clean hands to avoid smudges. Dust it lightly with a soft cloth if needed.
- Q: Is this book suitable for research projects? A: Yes, it's suitable for research projects. The book is well-researched and provides valuable insights into expert judgment.
- Q: How does this book compare to others in its genre? A: This book stands out for its thorough analysis of expert opinion compared to other works in social psychology.
- Q: How can I find additional resources related to this book? A: You can look for academic articles and reviews online that discuss the themes of this book for additional insights.