Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition-new

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition-new

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SKU: DADAX0691175977
Brand: Princeton University Press
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Since Its Original Publication, Expert Political Judgment By New York Times Bestselling Author Philip Tetlock Has Established Itself As A Contemporary Classic In The Literature On Evaluating Expert Opinion.Tetlock First Discusses Arguments About Whether The World Is Too Complex For People To Find The Tools To Understand Political Phenomena, Let Alone Predict The Future. He Evaluates Predictions From Experts In Different Fields, Comparing Them To Predictions By Wellinformed Laity Or Those Based On Simple Extrapolation From Current Trends. He Goes On To Analyze Which Styles Of Thinking Are More Successful In Forecasting. Classifying Thinking Styles Using Isaiah Berlin'S Prototypes Of The Fox And The Hedgehog, Tetlock Contends That The Foxthe Thinker Who Knows Many Little Things, Draws From An Eclectic Array Of Traditions, And Is Better Able To Improvise In Response To Changing Eventsis More Successful In Predicting The Future Than The Hedgehog, Who Knows One Big Thing, Toils Devotedly Within One Tradition, And Imposes Formulaic Solutions On Illdefined Problems. He Notes A Perversely Inverse Relationship Between The Best Scientific Indicators Of Good Judgement And The Qualities That The Media Most Prizes In Punditsthe Singleminded Determination Required To Prevail In Ideological Combat.Clearly Written And Impeccably Researched, The Book Fills A Huge Void In The Literature On Evaluating Expert Opinion. It Will Appeal Across Many Academic Disciplines As Well As To Corporations Seeking To Develop Standards For Judging Expert Decisionmaking. Now With A New Preface In Which Tetlock Discusses The Latest Research In The Field, The Book Explores What Constitutes Good Judgment In Predicting Future Events And Looks At Why Experts Are Often Wrong In Their Forecasts.

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This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.

For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.

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