Title
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition,Used
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by wellinformed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the foxthe thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing eventsis more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on illdefined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in punditsthe singleminded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decisionmaking. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
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We ship your order within 2–3 business days for USA deliveries and 5–8 business days for international shipments. Once your package has been dispatched from our warehouse, you'll receive an email confirmation with a tracking number, allowing you to track the status of your delivery.
Returns
To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
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Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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