Forecasting Inflation in Asian Economies: In the pursuit of new knowledge,Used

Forecasting Inflation in Asian Economies: In the pursuit of new knowledge,Used

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SKU: DADAX3846500992
Brand: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Condition: New
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This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflationmarkup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting hquarter ahead inflation using single equations. These models include the autoregressive model and bivariate Philips curve models. The predictors are selected from business activity, financial activity, trade activity, labour market, interest rate market, money market, exchange rate market and global commodity market variables. We then evaluate a vector autoregressive inflationmarkup model against the single equation models to understand whether there is any gain in forecasting using the inflationmarkup theory. The paper subsequently analyses the robustness of these results by examining different forecasting procedures in the presence of structural breaks.

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