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Hope, Groupthink and the Decision to Invade Iraq: Group Hope and Risky Group DecisionMaking,Used
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Since its inception the validity of the most popular theory of group decisionmaking, Irving Janis?(1982) theory of groupthink, has been scrutinized. One major criticism is it lacks predictive validity due an overreliance on retrospective case studies of political fiascoes made by the American government (e.g., Bay of Pigs). The second criticism is it lacks empirical validity for failing to demonstrate the presence of two of its three predictors: cohesiveness and provocative situational context. As such, the contributions of this book to the emotions, groupthink, and decisionmaking literature are to illustrate: 1) using the Decision to Invade Iraq that a revised theory of groupthink is predictive and relevant, 2) that positive emotions such as hope precedes risky group decisionmaking processes, and 3) group polarization exacerbates grouplevel emotions and risky group decision making, especially when the group lacks decision making protocols. While the intention of this book is not to evaluate the Decision to Invade Iraq, the cumulative evidence to date strongly suggests that it is a classic case of groupthink.
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