Title
Judgement and Choice, Second Edition,Used
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are made intuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almost instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise choice, which accounts for almost all real decisionmaking activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on decisionmaking methodology and standard decisions theory in that it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear and nontechnical way it deals with the basis of intuitive judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of learning the limits to one?s judgmental a bility. The purpose of this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be of great value to all decision makers?in commerce, government service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents Preface; The nature of human judgement; Randomness and the probabilistic environment; Combining information for prediction; Combining information for evaluation and choice; Choice under uncertainty; On learning relations; The role of memory in judgement; Creativity, imagination, and choice; Problem structuring and decision aids; Human judgement?an overview; Appendices; Index Reviews of the First Edition ??I believe that Professor Hogarth?s book will prove to be of historical importance in the development of the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. ??Hogarth has given us a clear, integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the direct practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly, ASQ, June 1982.
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Shipping & Returns
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We ship your order within 2–3 business days for USA deliveries and 5–8 business days for international shipments. Once your package has been dispatched from our warehouse, you'll receive an email confirmation with a tracking number, allowing you to track the status of your delivery.
Returns
To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
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Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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