Makroekonomicheskoe prognozirovanie: metody i modeli: Printsipy, vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya (Russian Edition),Used

Makroekonomicheskoe prognozirovanie: metody i modeli: Printsipy, vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya (Russian Edition),Used

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SKU: DADAX3847371681
Brand: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Condition: New
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Primenyaemye v prognozirovanii metody raznoobrazny po svoey suti, trebuyut razlichnoy iskhodnoy informatsii i imeyut svoim rezul'tatom raznogo kachestva otsenki budushchikh sobytiy. Dannaya rabota presleduet dve tseli: s odnoy storony, klassifitsirovat' metody, ispol'zuyushchiesya pri sostavlenii prognozov makroekonomiki, s drugoy proanalizirovat' vozmozhnosti ikh primeneniya i kombinatsii na primerakh iz otechestvennoy i zarubezhnoy praktiki. Avtor nachinaet rassmotrenie s analiza klassifikatsiy metodov, obosnovyvaet klassifikatsiyu, v kotoroy bazovym yavlyaetsya delenie metodov na ekspertnye i faktograficheskie. Pervye podrazdelyayutsya na prognozirovanie geniyami, metod fokal'nykh ob"ektov, morfologicheskogo analiza, postroeniya grafa budushchikh sobytiy, postroeniya stsenariev, kruglogo stola, prognozirovanie po analogii, mozgovoy shturm, metod Del'fi. Vtorye delyatsya na statisticheskie (analiticheskie i adaptivnye) i matematicheskie (regressionnye uravneniya, sistemy uravneniy, imitatsionnye modeli). V ramkakh predlozhennoy klassifikatsii izlagayutsya printsipy, vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya osnovnykh primenyaemykh metodik, privodyatsya primery ikh ispol'zovaniya pri sostavlenii chastnykh prognozov pokazateley ekonomiki.

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