Title
Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth,Used
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
Though we commonly make them the butt of our jokes, weather forecasters are in fact exceptionally good at managing uncertainty. They consistently do a better job calibrating their performance than stockbrokers, physicians, or other decisionmaking experts precisely because they receive feedback on their decisions in near real time. Following forecasters in their quest for truth and accuracy, therefore, holds the key to the analytically elusive process of decision making as it actually happens.In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha develops a new conceptual framework for the process of decision making, after spending years immersed in the life of a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that predicting the weather will always be more craft than science, Daipha shows how forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather. Impressive data infrastructures and powerful computer models are still only a substitute for the real thing outside, and so forecasters also enlist improvisational collage techniques and an omnivorous appetite for information to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. Intent on capturing decision making in action, Daipha takes the reader through engrossing firsthand accounts of several forecasting episodes (hits and misses) and offers a rare flyonthewall insight into the process and challenges of producing meteorological predictions come rain or come shine. Combining rich detail with lucid argument, Masters of Uncertainty advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts into new light how we make decisions in the digital age.
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Shipping & Returns
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We ship your order within 2–3 business days for USA deliveries and 5–8 business days for international shipments. Once your package has been dispatched from our warehouse, you'll receive an email confirmation with a tracking number, allowing you to track the status of your delivery.
Returns
To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
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Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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Frequently Asked Questions
- Q: What is the main focus of 'Masters of Uncertainty'? A: 'Masters of Uncertainty' explores how weather forecasters manage uncertainty in their predictions, emphasizing the balance between craft and science in meteorology.
- Q: Who is the author of the book? A: The book is authored by Phaedra Daipha, who spent years studying the National Weather Service's forecasting process.
- Q: What type of binding does this book have? A: The book is available in paperback binding.
- Q: How many pages does 'Masters of Uncertainty' have? A: 'Masters of Uncertainty' contains a total of 279 pages.
- Q: When was 'Masters of Uncertainty' published? A: The book was published on November 17, 2015.
- Q: What category does this book fall under? A: 'Masters of Uncertainty' falls under the category of Climatology.
- Q: Is the book in new condition? A: Yes, 'Masters of Uncertainty' is offered in new condition.
- Q: What makes this book unique in its approach to decision making? A: The book presents a new conceptual framework for decision making by analyzing the real-time feedback that weather forecasters receive, showcasing their improvisational techniques.
- Q: Does this book contain illustrations? A: Yes, 'Masters of Uncertainty' is an illustrated edition.
- Q: What insights does the author provide about the forecasting process? A: The author shares firsthand accounts of forecasting episodes, revealing the challenges and intricacies involved in making accurate meteorological predictions.