On Predictability Of Mutual Funds Return: Evidence from Indian Market,Used

On Predictability Of Mutual Funds Return: Evidence from Indian Market,Used

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Mutual Funds in recent past as a channel of resource mobilization has gained immense importance in general and in India in particular. Common indicators of business and monetary conditions, the lagged mutualfundrisk premium, and the market risk premium, are used to predict mutualfund returns for a time horizon of one day. In isolation, each of the four predictors significantly forecast mutualfund returns from April 2008 to March 2011 for Indian market. The indicator of monetary conditions, i.e. the MIBOR premium, is found to have the strongest forecast power. Multivariate analysis confirm that the four predictors are indeed strong forecasters of mutual fund returns. Moreover, the MIBOR premium, the term premium, and the lagged mutualfundrisk premium all emerge as the best and most consistent predictors of mutual fund returns. The marketrisk premium is found to be good but less consistent as predictors of mutualfund returns.

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