Title
Radical Uncertainty: Decisionmaking Beyond The Numbers
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
Much Economic Advice Is Bogus Quantification, Warn Two Leading Experts In This Essential Book. Invented Numbers Offer False Security; We Need Instead Robust Narratives That Yield The Confidence To Manage Uncertainty.Some Uncertainties Are Resolvable. The Insurance Industrys Actuarial Tables And The Gamblers Roulette Wheel Both Yield To The Tools Of Probability Theory. Most Situations In Life, However, Involve A Deeper Kind Of Uncertainty, A Radical Uncertainty For Which Historical Data Provide No Useful Guidance To Future Outcomes. Radical Uncertainty Concerns Events Whose Determinants Are Insufficiently Understood For Probabilities To Be Known Or Forecasting Possible. Before President Barack Obama Made The Fateful Decision To Send In The Navy Seals, His Advisers Offered Him Wildly Divergent Estimates Of The Odds That Osama Bin Laden Would Be In The Abbottabad Compound. In 2000, No Onenot Least Steve Jobsknew What A Smartphone Was; How Could Anyone Have Predicted How Many Would Be Sold In 2020? And Financial Advisers Who Confidently Provide The Information Required In The Standard Retirement Planning Packagewhat Will Interest Rates, The Cost Of Living, And Your State Of Health Be In 2050?Demonstrate Only That Their Advice Is Worthless.The Limits Of Certainty Demonstrate The Power Of Human Judgment Over Artificial Intelligence. In Most Critical Decisions There Can Be No Forecasts Or Probability Distributions On Which We Might Sensibly Rely. Instead Of Inventing Numbers To Fill The Gaps In Our Knowledge, We Should Adopt Business, Political, And Personal Strategies That Will Be Robust To Alternative Futures And Resilient To Unpredictable Events. Within The Security Of Such A Robust And Resilient Reference Narrative, Uncertainty Can Be Embraced, Because It Is The Source Of Creativity, Excitement, And Profit.
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Shipping & Returns
Shipping
We ship your order within 2–3 business days for USA deliveries and 5–8 business days for international shipments. Once your package has been dispatched from our warehouse, you'll receive an email confirmation with a tracking number, allowing you to track the status of your delivery.
Returns
To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
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We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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Secure Payment
Your payment information is processed securely. We do not store credit card details nor have access to your credit card information.
We accept payments with :
Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Paypal, Shopify Payments, Shop Pay and more.