Title
Radical Uncertainty: Decisionmaking Beyond The Numbers
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
Much Economic Advice Is Bogus Quantification, Warn Two Leading Experts In This Essential Book. Invented Numbers Offer False Security; We Need Instead Robust Narratives That Yield The Confidence To Manage Uncertainty.Some Uncertainties Are Resolvable. The Insurance Industrys Actuarial Tables And The Gamblers Roulette Wheel Both Yield To The Tools Of Probability Theory. Most Situations In Life, However, Involve A Deeper Kind Of Uncertainty, A Radical Uncertainty For Which Historical Data Provide No Useful Guidance To Future Outcomes. Radical Uncertainty Concerns Events Whose Determinants Are Insufficiently Understood For Probabilities To Be Known Or Forecasting Possible. Before President Barack Obama Made The Fateful Decision To Send In The Navy Seals, His Advisers Offered Him Wildly Divergent Estimates Of The Odds That Osama Bin Laden Would Be In The Abbottabad Compound. In 2000, No Onenot Least Steve Jobsknew What A Smartphone Was; How Could Anyone Have Predicted How Many Would Be Sold In 2020? And Financial Advisers Who Confidently Provide The Information Required In The Standard Retirement Planning Packagewhat Will Interest Rates, The Cost Of Living, And Your State Of Health Be In 2050?Demonstrate Only That Their Advice Is Worthless.The Limits Of Certainty Demonstrate The Power Of Human Judgment Over Artificial Intelligence. In Most Critical Decisions There Can Be No Forecasts Or Probability Distributions On Which We Might Sensibly Rely. Instead Of Inventing Numbers To Fill The Gaps In Our Knowledge, We Should Adopt Business, Political, And Personal Strategies That Will Be Robust To Alternative Futures And Resilient To Unpredictable Events. Within The Security Of Such A Robust And Resilient Reference Narrative, Uncertainty Can Be Embraced, Because It Is The Source Of Creativity, Excitement, And Profit.
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To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
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Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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Frequently Asked Questions
- Q: What is the main theme of 'Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers'? A: The main theme of the book is the critique of relying solely on quantitative data for decision-making. It emphasizes the importance of understanding radical uncertainty and using robust narratives to navigate complex situations.
- Q: Who are the authors of this book? A: The book is authored by John Kay, a renowned economist, and a leading expert in the field.
- Q: When was 'Radical Uncertainty' published? A: The book was published on March 17, 2020.
- Q: What type of binding does this book have? A: This book comes in a hardcover binding.
- Q: How many pages does 'Radical Uncertainty' contain? A: The book contains 544 pages.
- Q: What category does this book fall under? A: 'Radical Uncertainty' falls under the category of Decision-Making & Problem Solving.
- Q: Is this book suitable for beginners in economics? A: Yes, the book presents complex concepts in an accessible way, making it suitable for readers who may not have a strong background in economics.
- Q: What type of readers would benefit from this book? A: Readers interested in decision-making processes, economic theory, and those seeking to understand uncertainty in various contexts would benefit from this book.
- Q: Does the book provide practical strategies for decision-making? A: Yes, the book offers insights and strategies for making decisions in the face of uncertainty, encouraging robust and resilient approaches.
- Q: Is 'Radical Uncertainty' part of a series or a standalone book? A: This book is a standalone title and does not belong to a series.