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Risk Management Technologies: With Logic And Probabilistic Models (Topics In Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality, 20),Used
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This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LPcalculus; classes of LPmodels of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics.The classes of risk models treated here are: LPmodeling, LPclassification, LPefficiency, and LPforecasting. Particular attention is paid to LPmodels of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the discussed procedures of I3technologies are the construction of LPmodels, LPidentification of risk models; LPrisk analysis, LPmanagement and LPforecasting of risk.The book further considers LPmodels of risk of invalidity of systems and processes in accordance with the requirements of ISO 90012008, LPmodels of bank operational risks in accordance with the requirements of Basel2, complex risk LPmodels for preventing ammunition depot explosions, enterprise electric power supply systems, debugging tests of technical systems, etc. The book also considers LPmodels of credit risks, securities portfolios, operational risks in banking, conteraction of bribes and corruption, etc.A number of applications is given to show the effectiveness of risk management technologies. In addition, topics of lectures and practical computer exercises intended for a twosemester course Risk management technologies are suggested.
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