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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Centurylong periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these longterm oscillationswhat the authors call secular cycles.Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographicstructural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of longterm oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
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- Q: What is the main topic of 'Secular Cycles'? A: 'Secular Cycles' explores the recurring patterns of demographic, economic, and political changes throughout history, focusing on long-term oscillations in agrarian societies.
- Q: Who are the authors of 'Secular Cycles'? A: The book is authored by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov.
- Q: What is the publication date of 'Secular Cycles'? A: 'Secular Cycles' was published on August 9, 2009.
- Q: What type of binding does 'Secular Cycles' have? A: 'Secular Cycles' is available in hardcover binding.
- Q: How many pages does 'Secular Cycles' contain? A: 'Secular Cycles' contains a total of 360 pages.
- Q: What is the condition of the book? A: 'Secular Cycles' is in new condition.
- Q: In which category is 'Secular Cycles' classified? A: 'Secular Cycles' is classified under Economic History.
- Q: What edition of 'Secular Cycles' is available? A: 'Secular Cycles' is available in its first edition.
- Q: Does 'Secular Cycles' provide quantitative analysis? A: Yes, 'Secular Cycles' incorporates theoretical and quantitative history to analyze demographic and economic variables.
- Q: What historical societies are studied in 'Secular Cycles'? A: The book examines societies in England, France, Russia, as well as the Roman Republic and Empire.