Stochastische Modelle demographischer Prozesse (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 44) (German Edition),Used

Stochastische Modelle demographischer Prozesse (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 44) (German Edition),Used

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Die Bevolkerungsmathematik hat im deutschsprachigen Raum in den letzten Jahrzehnten etwa im Gegensatz zur Entwicklung in Frankreich und in den USA keinen rechten AnschluB an eine nicht unbedeutende Tradition finden konnen. Die vorliegende Arbeit mochte Probleme der demographischen Analyse erneut aufgreifen, diesmal jedoch unter Heran ziehung von Begriffsbildungen aus der Theorie stochastischer Prozesse. Die im folgenden vorgeschlagene stochastische Modellierung demogra phischer Phanomene solI einerseits dem Bevolkerungsstatistiker den Zu gang zu den oft kniffligen Fragen der formal en Demographie auf einheit licher Basis exakter und damit auch eleganter gestalten. Es ist die An sicht des Autors, daa viele bevolkerungsstatistische Problemstellungen erst 1m Rahmen stochastischer Prozesse ihre adaquate Behandlung erfah ren. Zum anderen liefert ein hier zu leis tender statistischer tlberbau der Demographie didaktisch abgerundete Anwendungsbeispiele der rasch an Bedeutung gewinnenden Theorie der Zufallsprozesse. Das Vorhaben dieser Arbeit besteht darin, zu zeigen, daa die sto chastischdynamische Betrachtungsweise demographischer Vorgange nicht nur ein tragfahiges Fundament ftir die Vielfalt bevolkerungsmathema tischer Modelle abgeben kann, sondern auch die Behandlung neuartiger genuiner Fragenkomplexe gewahrleistet. Die Untersuchung gliedert sich in drei Teile. In der am Beginn stehenden Mikrotheorie fungieren als ProzeSzustande jene, die von demographischen Individuen angenommen werden konnen, also etwa der Familienstand einer Person. Hingegen wer den beim Zustandsbegriff der Makromodelle die Anzahlen von Individuen einer bestimmten Kategorie, beispielsweise einer gewissen Altersklasse, erfaBt.

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