Title
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,New
Delivery time: 8-12 business days (International)
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, governmentfunded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.'In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of highlevel decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.
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⚠️ WARNING (California Proposition 65):
This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.
For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.
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Shipping & Returns
Shipping
We ship your order within 2–3 business days for USA deliveries and 5–8 business days for international shipments. Once your package has been dispatched from our warehouse, you'll receive an email confirmation with a tracking number, allowing you to track the status of your delivery.
Returns
To facilitate a smooth return process, a Return Authorization (RA) Number is required for all returns. Returns without a valid RA number will be declined and may incur additional fees. You can request an RA number within 15 days of the original delivery date. For more details, please refer to our Return & Refund Policy page.
Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
Warranty
We provide a 2-year limited warranty, from the date of purchase for all our products.
If you believe you have received a defective product, or are experiencing any problems with your product, please contact us.
This warranty strictly does not cover damages that arose from negligence, misuse, wear and tear, or not in accordance with product instructions (dropping the product, etc.).
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Your payment information is processed securely. We do not store credit card details nor have access to your credit card information.
We accept payments with :
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Frequently Asked Questions
- Q: What is the main topic of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'? A: 'Superforecasting' focuses on improving decision-making through better forecasting techniques, exploring how certain individuals excel at predicting outcomes.
- Q: Who is the author of 'Superforecasting'? A: The book is authored by Philip E. Tetlock, a Wharton professor, alongside coauthor Dan Gardner.
- Q: What are the key takeaways from 'Superforecasting'? A: Key takeaways include the importance of gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, and learning from both successes and failures in forecasting.
- Q: How many pages does the book have? A: 'Superforecasting' contains 352 pages.
- Q: Is 'Superforecasting' suitable for beginners in forecasting? A: Yes, the book is accessible and provides practical insights that can benefit beginners as well as seasoned professionals.
- Q: When was 'Superforecasting' published? A: 'Superforecasting' was published on September 13, 2016.
- Q: What type of binding does the book have? A: The book is available in a paperback binding.
- Q: Are there any notable endorsements for 'Superforecasting'? A: Yes, it has been endorsed as 'the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Jason Zweig from The Wall Street Journal.
- Q: Does the book include real-life examples of forecasting? A: Yes, it includes stories of both successful and failed forecasts, such as the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound and the Bay of Pigs.
- Q: What category does 'Superforecasting' fall under? A: 'Superforecasting' is categorized under Planning & Forecasting.