Title
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,New
Sold by Ergodebooks, an authorized reseller.
Returns accepted within 30 days | support@ergodebooks.com
Shipping Information
- Free Standard Shipping — United States only
- Processing Time: 1–3 business days
- Estimated Delivery: 3–5 business days after dispatch
- Double-boxed, fully insured & discreetly packaged
- Tracking number sent via email once dispatched
- Orders over $250 require signature upon delivery. Taxes calculated at checkout.
Returns & Refund
Returns accepted within 30 days of delivery.
Damaged or Defective Item
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Wrong Item Received
Free return shipping + replacement or full refund
Change of Mind
Return shipping at customer's expense · 25% restocking fee applies
Payment Option
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, governmentfunded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.'In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of highlevel decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.
⚠️ WARNING (California Proposition 65):
This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.
For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.
- Q: What is the main topic of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'? A: 'Superforecasting' focuses on improving decision-making through better forecasting techniques, exploring how certain individuals excel at predicting outcomes.
- Q: Who is the author of 'Superforecasting'? A: The book is authored by Philip E. Tetlock, a Wharton professor, alongside coauthor Dan Gardner.
- Q: What are the key takeaways from 'Superforecasting'? A: Key takeaways include the importance of gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, and learning from both successes and failures in forecasting.
- Q: How many pages does the book have? A: 'Superforecasting' contains 352 pages.
- Q: Is 'Superforecasting' suitable for beginners in forecasting? A: Yes, the book is accessible and provides practical insights that can benefit beginners as well as seasoned professionals.
- Q: When was 'Superforecasting' published? A: 'Superforecasting' was published on September 13, 2016.
- Q: What type of binding does the book have? A: The book is available in a paperback binding.
- Q: Are there any notable endorsements for 'Superforecasting'? A: Yes, it has been endorsed as 'the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Jason Zweig from The Wall Street Journal.
- Q: Does the book include real-life examples of forecasting? A: Yes, it includes stories of both successful and failed forecasts, such as the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound and the Bay of Pigs.
- Q: What category does 'Superforecasting' fall under? A: 'Superforecasting' is categorized under Planning & Forecasting.