Title
Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction-used
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New York Times Bestseller Named One Of The Best Books Of The Year By The Economistthe Most Important Book On Decision Making Since Daniel Kahneman'S Thinking, Fast And Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journaleveryone Would Benefit From Seeing Further Into The Future, Whether Buying Stocks, Crafting Policy, Launching A New Product, Or Simply Planning The Weeks Meals. Unfortunately, People Tend To Be Terrible Forecasters. As Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock Showed In A Landmark 2005 Study, Even Experts Predictions Are Only Slightly Better Than Chance. However, An Important And Underreported Conclusion Of That Study Was That Some Experts Do Have Real Foresight, And Tetlock Has Spent The Past Decade Trying To Figure Out Why. What Makes Some People So Good? And Can This Talent Be Taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock And Coauthor Dan Gardner Offer A Masterwork On Prediction, Drawing On Decades Of Research And The Results Of A Massive, Governmentfunded Forecasting Tournament. The Good Judgment Project Involves Tens Of Thousands Of Ordinary Peopleincluding A Brooklyn Filmmaker, A Retired Pipe Installer, And A Former Ballroom Dancerwho Set Out To Forecast Global Events. Some Of The Volunteers Have Turned Out To Be Astonishingly Good. Theyve Beaten Other Benchmarks, Competitors, And Prediction Markets. Theyve Even Beaten The Collective Judgment Of Intelligence Analysts With Access To Classified Information. They Are 'Superforecasters.'In This Groundbreaking And Accessible Book, Tetlock And Gardner Show Us How We Can Learn From This Elite Group. Weaving Together Stories Of Forecasting Successes (The Raid On Osama Bin Ladens Compound) And Failures (The Bay Of Pigs) And Interviews With A Range Of Highlevel Decision Makers, From David Petraeus To Robert Rubin, They Show That Good Forecasting Doesnt Require Powerful Computers Or Arcane Methods. It Involves Gathering Evidence From A Variety Of Sources, Thinking Probabilistically, Working In Teams, Keeping Score, And Being Willing To Admit Error And Change Course.Superforecasting Offers The First Demonstrably Effective Way To Improve Our Ability To Predict The Futurewhether In Business, Finance, Politics, International Affairs, Or Daily Lifeand Is Destined To Become A Modern Classic.
⚠️ WARNING (California Proposition 65):
This product may contain chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.
For more information, please visit www.P65Warnings.ca.gov.
- Q: What is the main focus of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'? A: 'Superforecasting' explores the art and science of prediction, examining why some individuals excel at forecasting future events and how these skills can be learned and applied in various fields.
- Q: Who is the author of 'Superforecasting'? A: The book is authored by Philip E. Tetlock, a Wharton professor, along with co-author Dan Gardner.
- Q: What type of binding does this book have? A: 'Superforecasting' is available in hardcover binding, ensuring durability and a premium feel.
- Q: How many pages are in 'Superforecasting'? A: The book contains 352 pages, providing an in-depth exploration of forecasting techniques and insights.
- Q: When was 'Superforecasting' published? A: 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' was published on September 29, 2015.
- Q: What are some key themes discussed in 'Superforecasting'? A: Key themes include the psychology of forecasting, learning from both successful and failed predictions, and practical strategies for improving decision-making skills.
- Q: Is 'Superforecasting' suitable for beginners? A: Yes, 'Superforecasting' is accessible to readers of all levels, providing valuable insights for both novices and experienced forecasters.
- Q: Does 'Superforecasting' include real-world examples? A: Yes, the book includes a variety of real-world examples and case studies, such as the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound and the Bay of Pigs incident, to illustrate forecasting successes and failures.
- Q: What makes 'Superforecasting' a unique book on prediction? A: 'Superforecasting' is unique because it combines rigorous research with practical strategies, drawing on a massive forecasting tournament to highlight the skills of 'superforecasters' who outperform traditional methods.
- Q: Can the skills discussed in 'Superforecasting' be applied outside of business? A: Absolutely, the forecasting techniques and principles outlined in the book can be applied in various fields, including politics, international affairs, and everyday decision-making.