Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems: Algorithms in C++,Used

Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems: Algorithms in C++,Used

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Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. Youve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its reallife performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations.This book does not contain any surefire, guaranteedriches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its ongoing performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book.What You Will LearnSee how the 'spaghettionthewall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimately Detect overfitting early in development Estimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luck Regularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidates Rapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading system Assess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changes Enhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicators Nest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systems Compute a lower bound on your system's mean future performance Bound expected periodic returns to detect ongoing system deterioration before it becomes severe Estimate the probability of catastrophic drawdownWho This Book Is ForExperienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.

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Frequently Asked Questions

  • Q: What topics does 'Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems' cover? A: This book covers building, testing, and tuning market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. It includes discussions on backtesting performance, statistical validation, system tuning, and expected future performance.
  • Q: Who is the intended audience for this book? A: The book is aimed at experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. It is recommended that readers have prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures.
  • Q: Is this book suitable for beginners in trading or programming? A: No, this book is designed for individuals with a solid foundation in C++ programming and statistical analysis. Beginners may find the content challenging.
  • Q: What is the main goal of this book? A: The main goal is to provide tools and methods for evaluating, tuning, and monitoring trading systems to improve their profitability and robustness.
  • Q: How many pages does the book contain? A: The book contains 330 pages.
  • Q: What edition of the book is available? A: The available edition is the First Edition, published on October 27, 2018.
  • Q: Does the book provide guaranteed trading strategies? A: No, the book does not contain guaranteed trading systems. It focuses on evaluation and improvement techniques for existing trading systems.
  • Q: What programming language is emphasized in this book? A: The book emphasizes the use of C++ for developing and testing trading algorithms.
  • Q: What kind of statistical tests are discussed in the book? A: The book discusses rigorous statistical tests to validate trading systems, including overfitting detection and assessment of backtest results.
  • Q: Can I use this book to create my own trading system from scratch? A: The book is more about improving existing systems rather than creating new ones from scratch. It assumes that readers already have a trading system in place.