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The Flaw Of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk In The Face Of Uncertainty-used
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A Mustread For Anyone Who Makes Business Decisions That Have A Major Financial Impact.As The Recent Collapse On Wall Street Shows, We Are Often Illequipped To Deal With Uncertainty And Risk. Yet Every Day We Base Our Personal And Business Plans On Uncertainties, Whether They Be Next Months Sales, Next Years Costs, Or Tomorrows Stock Price. In The Flaw Of Averages, Sam Savageknown For His Creative Exposition Of Difficult Subjects Describes Common Avoidable Mistakes In Assessing Risk In The Face Of Uncertainty. Along The Way, He Shows Why Plans Based On Average Assumptions Are Wrong, On Average, In Areas As Diverse As Healthcare, Accounting, The War On Terror, And Climate Change. In His Chapter On Sex And The Central Limit Theorem, He Bravely Grasps The Literary Third Rail Of Gender Differences.Instead Of Statistical Jargon, Savage Presents Complex Concepts In Plain English. In Addition, A Tightly Integrated Web Site Contains Numerous Animations And Simulations To Further Connect The Seat Of The Readers Intellect To The Seat Of Their Pants.The Flaw Of Averages Typically Results When Someone Plugs A Single Number Into A Spreadsheet To Represent An Uncertain Future Quantity. Savage Finishes The Book With A Discussion Of The Emerging Field Of Probability Management, Which Cures This Problem Though A New Technology That Can Pack Thousands Of Numbers Into A Single Spreadsheet Cell.Praise For The Flaw Of Averagesstatistical Uncertainties Are Pervasive In Decisions We Make Every Day In Business, Government, And Our Personal Lives. Sam Savages Lively And Engaging Book Gives Any Interested Reader The Insight And The Tools To Deal Effectively With Those Uncertainties. I Highly Recommend The Flaw Of Averages.William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary Of Defenseenterprise Analysis Under Uncertainty Has Long Been An Academic Ideal. . . . In This Profound And Entertaining Book, Professor Savage Shows How To Make All This Practical, Practicable, And Comprehensible.Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate In Economics
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- Q: What is 'The Flaw of Averages' about? A: 'The Flaw of Averages' explains how relying on average values can lead to poor decision-making in uncertain situations. The author, Sam Savage, illustrates common mistakes in risk assessment across various fields including business and healthcare.
- Q: Who is the author of 'The Flaw of Averages'? A: The book is authored by Sam L. Savage, who is known for his engaging approach to complex statistical concepts.
- Q: When was 'The Flaw of Averages' published? A: 'The Flaw of Averages' was published on January 1, 2009.
- Q: What type of binding does this book have? A: This edition of 'The Flaw of Averages' comes in a hardcover binding, making it durable and suitable for frequent handling.
- Q: How many pages are in 'The Flaw of Averages'? A: The book contains 392 pages, providing in-depth insights into risk assessment and decision-making.
- Q: Is 'The Flaw of Averages' suitable for beginners in statistics? A: Yes, the book is written in plain English and aims to make complex statistical ideas accessible to readers without a strong background in statistics.
- Q: What themes are covered in 'The Flaw of Averages'? A: The book covers themes such as risk assessment, uncertainty in decision-making, and the implications of using average values in business and personal planning.
- Q: Does 'The Flaw of Averages' include real-world examples? A: Yes, Sam Savage uses real-world examples from various fields like healthcare and finance to illustrate the pitfalls of average-based decision-making.
- Q: Are there any special features included with the book? A: The book includes a tightly integrated website with animations and simulations that help connect theoretical concepts with practical applications.
- Q: What is the main takeaway from 'The Flaw of Averages'? A: The main takeaway is that plans based on average assumptions can lead to significant errors in judgment, and adopting a more nuanced approach to uncertainty can improve decision-making.