Title
The Flaw Of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk In The Face Of Uncertainty-used
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A Mustread For Anyone Who Makes Business Decisions That Have A Major Financial Impact.As The Recent Collapse On Wall Street Shows, We Are Often Illequipped To Deal With Uncertainty And Risk. Yet Every Day We Base Our Personal And Business Plans On Uncertainties, Whether They Be Next Months Sales, Next Years Costs, Or Tomorrows Stock Price. In The Flaw Of Averages, Sam Savageknown For His Creative Exposition Of Difficult Subjects Describes Common Avoidable Mistakes In Assessing Risk In The Face Of Uncertainty. Along The Way, He Shows Why Plans Based On Average Assumptions Are Wrong, On Average, In Areas As Diverse As Healthcare, Accounting, The War On Terror, And Climate Change. In His Chapter On Sex And The Central Limit Theorem, He Bravely Grasps The Literary Third Rail Of Gender Differences.Instead Of Statistical Jargon, Savage Presents Complex Concepts In Plain English. In Addition, A Tightly Integrated Web Site Contains Numerous Animations And Simulations To Further Connect The Seat Of The Readers Intellect To The Seat Of Their Pants.The Flaw Of Averages Typically Results When Someone Plugs A Single Number Into A Spreadsheet To Represent An Uncertain Future Quantity. Savage Finishes The Book With A Discussion Of The Emerging Field Of Probability Management, Which Cures This Problem Though A New Technology That Can Pack Thousands Of Numbers Into A Single Spreadsheet Cell.Praise For The Flaw Of Averagesstatistical Uncertainties Are Pervasive In Decisions We Make Every Day In Business, Government, And Our Personal Lives. Sam Savages Lively And Engaging Book Gives Any Interested Reader The Insight And The Tools To Deal Effectively With Those Uncertainties. I Highly Recommend The Flaw Of Averages.William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary Of Defenseenterprise Analysis Under Uncertainty Has Long Been An Academic Ideal. . . . In This Profound And Entertaining Book, Professor Savage Shows How To Make All This Practical, Practicable, And Comprehensible.Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate In Economics
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- Q: How many pages does the book have? A: The book has three hundred ninety-two pages. This length allows for an in-depth exploration of the concepts of risk and uncertainty.
- Q: What is the binding type of this book? A: The book is hardcover. This durable binding ensures that it withstands frequent use and maintains its condition over time.
- Q: What are the dimensions of the book? A: The book measures six point twenty-six inches in length, one point five inches in width, and nine point five inches in height. These dimensions make it a manageable size for reading.
- Q: Who is the author of this book? A: The author is Sam L. Savage. He is known for his expertise in risk management and statistical analysis.
- Q: What is the main subject of the book? A: The main subject of the book is microeconomics. It specifically addresses the flaws in average assumptions regarding risk and uncertainty in business decisions.
- Q: Is this book suitable for beginners in economics? A: Yes, the book is suitable for beginners. It presents complex concepts in plain English, making it accessible for readers with varying levels of expertise.
- Q: How can I apply the concepts from this book in my business? A: You can apply the concepts by reassessing your decision-making processes. The book offers insights on avoiding common mistakes related to average assumptions in business planning.
- Q: What age group is this book intended for? A: The book is intended for adults and professionals. It discusses financial impacts and decision-making strategies relevant to business and economics.
- Q: Are there any online resources associated with this book? A: Yes, there is a tightly integrated website with animations and simulations. These resources further connect the reader's understanding with practical examples.
- Q: How should I store this book to keep it in good condition? A: Store the book in a cool, dry place away from direct sunlight. This will help preserve its cover and pages over time.
- Q: Is there a warranty or return policy for this book? A: Yes, there is usually a return policy for books. Check with the retailer for specific details regarding returns or exchanges.
- Q: What should I do if the book arrives damaged? A: If the book arrives damaged, contact the retailer immediately. They will guide you through the return or exchange process.
- Q: Can I use this book for academic purposes? A: Yes, this book can be used for academic purposes. It provides valuable insights and discussions on risk management that are applicable in various courses.
- Q: Does this book include practical examples? A: Yes, the book includes practical examples and case studies. These illustrate the pitfalls of average assumptions in real-world scenarios.
- Q: Is the book suitable for someone not familiar with statistics? A: Yes, the book is suitable for individuals without a background in statistics. The author explains concepts in an accessible manner.
- Q: What makes this book unique compared to others in its field? A: This book is unique due to its engaging writing style and the author's ability to simplify complex concepts. It also addresses a wide range of applications beyond economics.