The Next Decade: Empire and Republic in a Changing World,New

Product DescriptionThe author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decades leaders.In the long view, history is seen as a series of eventsbut the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedmananalyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular onthe American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.ReviewA mustread. The Washington TimesDelivered in an engaging style and with no little dramatic flourish . . . [The Next Decade should] find a wide and receptive popular audience. San Francisco ChronicleFriedman . . . has the unusual ability to view events through the eyes of not only American but also foreign leaders. New York ObserverThere is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8Ball. The New York Times MagazineConsidering how right [Friedman]s been over the years, hes worth listening to. San Antonio ExpressNewsPredictions have made George Friedman a hot property these days. The Wall Street JournalWellresearched and compelling. Publishers WeeklyExpect the unexpected. . . . He can see without the crystal ball. NewsweekAbout the AuthorGEORGE FRIEDMAN is founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, which specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Prior to 2015, Friedman was chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded in 1996. Friedman is the author of six books, including the New York Times bestsellers The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. He is a senior advisor to Gallup, Inc. He lives in Austin, Texas.Excerpt. Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.INTRODUCTIONRebalancing AmericaA century is about events. A decade is about people. I wrote The Next 100 Years to explore the impersonal forces that shape history in the long run, but human beings dont live in the long run. We live in the much shorter span in which our lives are shaped not so much by vast historical trends but by the specific decisions of specific individuals.This book is about the short run of the next ten years: the specific realities to be faced, the specific decisions to be made, and the likely consequences of those decisions. Most people think that the longer the time frame, the more unpredictable the future. I take the opposite view. Individual actions are the hardest thing to predict. In the course of a century, so many individual decisions are made that no single one of them is ever critical. Each decision is lost in the torrent of judgments that make up a century. But in the shorter time frame of a decade, individual decisions made by individual people, particularly those with political power, can matter enormously. What I wrote in The Next 100 Years is the frame for understanding this decade. But it is only the frame.Forecasting a century is the art of recognizing the impossible, then eliminating from consideration all the events that, at least logically, arent going to happen. The reason is, as Sherlock Holmes put it, When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, h