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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Failbut Some Dont
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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nations foremost political forecasterupdated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and pollingOne of The Wall Street Journals Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the YearCould turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.The New York Times Book ReviewMost predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probabilityas well as a healthy dose of humility.With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silvers insights are an essential read.
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