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Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of TrialandError for Business, Politics, and Society,Used
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How do we know which social and economic policies work, which should be continued, and which should be changed? Jim Manzi argues that throughout history, various methods have been attempted except for controlled experimentation. Experiments provide the feedback loop that allows us, in certain limited ways, to identify error in our beliefs as a first step to correcting them. Over the course of the first half of the twentieth century, scientists invented a methodology for executing controlled experiments to evaluate certain kinds of proposed social interventions. This technique goes by many names in different contexts (randomized control trials, randomized field experiments, clinical trials, etc.). Over the past ten to twenty years this has been increasingly deployed in a wide variety of contexts, but it remains the redhaired step child of modern social science. This is starting to change, and this change should be encouraged and accelerated, even though the staggering complexity of human society creates severe limits to what social science could be realistically expected to achieve. Randomized trials have shown, for example, that work requirements for welfare recipients have succeeded like nothing else in encouraging employment, that charter school vouchers have been successful in increasing educational attainment for underprivileged children, and that community policing has worked to reduce crime, but also that programs like Head Start and Job Corps, which might be politically attractive, fail to attain their intended objectives. Business leaders can also use experiments to test decisions in a controlled, lowrisk environment before investing precious resources in largescale changes the philosophy behind Manzi's own successful software company.In a powerful and masterfullyargued book, Manzi shows us how the methods of science can be applied to social and economic policy in order to ensure progress and prosperity.
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- Q: What is the main topic of 'Uncontrolled' by Jim Manzi? A: The book discusses the importance of controlled experimentation in evaluating social and economic policies, arguing that such methods can lead to better decision-making in business and governance.
- Q: How does Jim Manzi propose we evaluate social policies? A: Manzi advocates for the use of controlled experiments, like randomized control trials, to assess the effectiveness of various social interventions.
- Q: What are some examples of successful experiments mentioned in the book? A: The book highlights successful initiatives like work requirements for welfare recipients, charter school vouchers for underprivileged children, and community policing strategies.
- Q: What is the author's background? A: Jim Manzi is a businessman and the founder of a successful software company, which informs his perspective on using experimentation in decision-making.
- Q: What is the significance of controlled experimentation according to the book? A: Controlled experimentation is significant as it provides a structured method to test hypotheses, allowing for data-driven decisions that can lead to improved outcomes in society.
- Q: What challenges does Manzi acknowledge regarding social science? A: Manzi recognizes the complexity of human society and the limitations it imposes on the expectations of what social science can realistically achieve.
- Q: Is 'Uncontrolled' suitable for readers outside of academia? A: Yes, the book is written for a general audience and aims to make complex ideas about experimentation accessible to anyone interested in social policies and decision-making.
- Q: What is the publication date of 'Uncontrolled'? A: The book was published on May 1, 2012.
- Q: How many pages does 'Uncontrolled' have? A: The book contains 320 pages.
- Q: What type of binding is used for this book? A: The book is available in a hardcover binding.